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NFL Conference Championship betting preview: Can we expect more unders?

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Fans of the Bills, Cowboys, Jaguars and Giants had their hearts ripped out and seasons ended last week, but you know who had it worse? Any bettor who had all of the overs.

Favourites and underdogs went 2-2 against the spread (ATS) and home teams were 3-1 straight up (SU) last week but the story of the Divisional Round was all about the unders. All four games finished under the listed totals even though three of the advancing teams posted at least 27 points.

With perhaps the NFL’s four most dominant defensive lines remaining, points could be hard to come by for a second consecutive week. The battles in the trenches should be epic.

The NFC Championship is a dream matchup of dynamic offences and elite defensive units, while over in the AFC it’s an anticipated rematch of last year’s Championship game that went down to the wire.

Here’s quick a look at both games this weekend with moneyline and ATS odds, totals, plus some key betting stats and preferred picks (12-11 in playoffs).

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49ERS (+130) @ EAGLES (-155) | Sunday 3:00 p.m. ET
Spread: 49ers +2.5/Eagles -2.5
Total: 46.5
SF record ATS: 13-6 | Over/Under: 10-9
PHI record ATS: 9-9 | Over/Under: 10-8

Both NFC teams covered as chalk in the Divisional Round. Philadelphia is 8-2 SU at home this season and 7-3 ATS (all 10 times as the favourite). Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts has covered (7-0 ATS) every time his team is favoured by less than 10 points at home.

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The 49ers haven’t lost with Brock Purdy behind centre and covered the spread in all but one of those games. San Francisco wasn’t accustomed to being in the underdog role this season but the one time they were road dogs they covered easily and won outright in late October against the Rams. Kyle Shanahan-coached teams are 7-1 ATS in the playoffs.

Philly went 2-1 in games this season when they had a rest advantage, while San Fran was 3-0 SU when playing with a rest disadvantage; the Eagles have a one-day rest advantage over the 49ers this week.

The past five playoff games at Lincoln Financial Field have gone under the total. The Philly faithful are always extra boisterous when there’s more on the line and when the weather is such that they can see their own breath.

MJ’s preferred picks: Eagles -2.5, Under 46.5

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BENGALS (+125) @ CHIEFS (-130) | Sunday 6:00 p.m. ET
Spread: Bengals +1.5/Chiefs -1.5
Total: 48.0
CIN record ATS: 13-5 | Over/Under: 7-10-1
KC record ATS: 6-11-1 | Over/Under: 8-10

This line has moved slightly yet frequently throughout the week, opening with the Chiefs as 1.5-point favourites before things flipflopped Cincinnati’s way as Patrick Mahomes’ ankle injury situation looked murkier than it currently does. The health and mobility of the Kansas City’s superstar quarterback is the main storyline heading into Sunday’s final game. Many of Mahomes best moments happen while he’s on the move, either by design or when improvising.

Mahomes was a full participant in practice Friday, the Chiefs are back to being favoured and the majority of the public is siding with the visiting team now that the Bengals have settled as the underdog. Cincinnati is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season when dogs with two of them coming on the road. Zac Taylor’s team was 10-1 both SU and ATS in non-division games and 8-2 ATS on the road.

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Joe Burrow is 3-0 all-time against the Chiefs (2-0 regular season, 1-0 playoffs) and his offensive line held up just fine against Buffalo last week despite being without guard Alex Cappa and tackle Jonah Williams. Can the o-line depth prevail again this week? That may depend on how much of a disrupting force Chiefs’ Chris Jones ends up being. As was the case in last year’s AFC Championship, this game could ultimately come down to how well Burrow and his o-line fare in the face of an intense pass rush.

Chiefs bettors are reeling from a backdoor Jaguars cover. It’s something we’ve seen all season with Andy Reid’s team only going 6-11-1 ATS and just 2-5-1 ATS specifically as home favourites.

The past three times these teams played the game was won by a Bengals field goal. There was a 34-31 final and the two most recent meetings both ended 27-24. The AFC Championship in 2022 saw Burrow and the Bengals battle back from a 21-3 first-half deficit.

Can Kansas City snap Cincy’s streak and reclaim “Burrowhead Stadium” as their own while simultaneously booking a trip to the Super Bowl?

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MJ’s preferred picks: Chiefs -1.5, Under 48

(Odds, plus listed point spreads and totals, via Sports Interaction as of Friday and subject to change; moneyline odds rounded to nearest multiple of five and subject to change; trends via Covers and TeamRankings)

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Watch as Lionel Messi marks his 800th career goal with a freekick

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Lionel Messi scored his 800th career goal from a superb free-kick as Argentina beat Panama 2-0 in a friendly on Thursday.

Argentina coach Lionel Scaloni decided to start with the same starting XI that appeared in the World Cup final against France for the game against Panama.

There was no goal in the first half but substitute Thiago Almada scored the first goal of the game in the 78th minute before Lionel Messi’s 89th.

Lionel Messi struck with venom for his 800th career goal and 62nd free-kick goal, two more than Cristiano Ronaldo’s record 60.

Lionel Messi tonight

👉 10th free-kick goal for Argentina
👉 62nd career free kicks
👉 99th goal for Argentina
👉 800th senior career goal

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WPL, UPW vs MI | Twitter in awe of Issy Wong for claiming honour of first ever WPL hattrick

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A thrilled Issy Wong after the WPL’s first hat-trick

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Hat-tricks in cricket are always exciting given the anticipation that builds around that third ball, with everyone knowing what is at stake and an unprecedented ball makes the deal even sweeter. Issy Wong cemented her name in the WPL history books by scalping the league’s first-ever hat-trick.

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Will Pac 12 secure a media rights deal with USC, UCLA leaving?

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I’m not sure the Pac-12 can afford to get harder to find. They can potentially afford quite a bit if they sign a deal with Apple or Amazon as conference commissioners George Kliavkoff is eyeing a sizeable TV rights deal to provide its sporting directors with a reassuring cushion of cash to lay their worried heads on. Optics and especially eyes are everything.

Amazon and Apple Everyone knows how hard it is to break the audience’s muscle memory, turn on the TV and head to the entrance or the app for Netflix, HBO, or the cable box. Why do you think Teddy Lasso has been overallincluding in Pints ​​of Jeni’s Ice Cream and at the White House?

While I’m sure Apple would introduce an ad boost reminiscent of what Amazon did with it NFL’s Thursday Night Football, the Shield, is a different beast, and Amazon still had to compensate some advertisers for it TNF does not agree with projections.

Which brings us to ESPN, the third company trying to woo the Pac-12. Or is the Pac-12 the seducer? I have no idea. Anyway off what i read — and that follows with that Layoffs are said to be pending at Disney/ESPN – The only way the Pac-12 will end up on the mothership is by accepting a low-ball offer, which will get the conference a few games on the main feed but plenty of ESPN+ action.

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It’s hard enough getting a Pac-12 audience after dark

I’m definitely not the type to bitch about games starting or ending late. Some industries require employees to be on the phone at 6 or 7 a.m., and sportswriters should, at least in theory, consider staying up past their bedtime part of their job.

That doesn’t apply to fans or the audience. They’ll see when and where it suits, and if it’s on Apple or Amazon at 9pm on Saturday night after watching football all day, good damn luck. Tires after 10pm during the week? Don’t even look at the reviews.

Take away USC soccer and UCLA basketball in a year or two, and greater viewing in metropolitan Los Angeles is gone. The Big 12 might have been able to convince Fox and ESPN that their product was worth $2.3 billion, but that was before Bob Iger returned to Disney and before we heard of streaming spending spiraling out of control of the company.

That’s Apple or Amazon. Everyone has live sports, but the return didn’t matter. Be it MLB at Apple or the NFL at Amazon, streaming services have yet to find a foolproof plan to do so transfer games. This isn’t CBS, NBC, or TNT where you hook up the games on one channel and watch viewers tune in.

I understand the bet on fans who focus on services for sport; it just feels like an extremely risky proposition given the current indifference to conferences that aren’t called the SEC or the Big Ten.

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What is the Pac-12 worth?

The Pac-12 hasn’t won a national championship in soccer or men’s basketball since 2004, and that has been USC. The Big 12 had a team in the finals of the College Football Playoffs in January and boast the last two winners of the Men’s March Madness. They can pull off at least a few notable feats, while the Pac-12 can only tell you how good Utah is.

Oregon will soon be the biggest remaining brand at the conference, and they were Rumored to be the Big Ten. We’ve also heard similar rumors about the “Four Corners” schools – Colorado, Utah, Arizona and Arizona State interest of the Big 12. Let’s be honest, they all make doomsday scenarios and talk about granting rights my cerebral hemorrhage.

I personally couldn’t it doesn’t give a damn which conference has been doing what and how lately, but that’s not the point Reality. The reality is, if the Pac-12 screws up, which is a possibility even with a new TV deal, college sports fans will be on their way to a two-conference hierarchy with a bunch of orphaned colleges vying for scrap.

Then there’s only one way to stop the Big Ten and SEC’s lust for power, but America doesn’t seem as keen on breaking up monopolies as it is.

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