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London investment will come roaring back after drop-off, says British Business Bank

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London firms will be forced to weather a sharp drop in investment in the coming months before rebounding in full force, a senior British Business Bank official has warned.

Matt Adey, senior economist at the government-backed Economic Development Bank, said troubled markets in the UK meant investment in London’s growing businesses would slow in the coming period, but predicted capital would eventually come back.

“I would expect to see significantly fewer deals, and from the looks of it, there are significantly fewer deals in the third quarter,” Adey said.

“But that doesn’t seem like a long-term problem to me. It’s just part of the volatility of these markets.

“Basically, London is a strong market with a lot of innovative companies looking for finance and a lot of people looking to fund it.”

The comments come as financing for businesses is beginning to slow this year after an investment frenzy in 2021 that saw record amounts of capital flow into London’s businesses.

New figures from the state-backed British Business Bank showed that London firms swallowed up almost half of all share deals in the country last year.

But analysts are warning of a slowdown in global financing in the coming months as rising interest rates make it harder for investors to raise cash and the so-called ‘dry powder’ raised ahead of this year’s downturn dwindles.

“The shift in monetary policy from historically low interest rates that have fueled growth, spending and borrowing is notable and its impact on the VC dealmaking environment will become more apparent throughout the fourth quarter of 2022,” analysts at Pitchbook said in a recent report .

“YoY growth in VC deal activity over the past decade has been significant and we believe 2023 may flatten out rather than sharply decline.”

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India to leapfrog to third largest economy by 2030

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Beautiful and colorful aerial view of Mumbai skyline during twilight as seen from Currey Road on February 16, 2022 in Mumbai, India.

Pratik Chorge | Hindustan Times | Getty Images

Accordingly, India should overtake Japan and Germany and become the third largest economy in the world S&P Global and MorganStanley.

S&P’s forecast is based on the forecast that India’s annual nominal gross domestic product growth will average 6.3% through 2030. Similarly, Morgan Stanley estimates that India’s GDP is likely to more than double by 2031 from current levels.

“India has set the stage for an economic boom fueled by offshoring, manufacturing investment, the energy transition and the country’s advanced digital infrastructure,” Morgan Stanley analysts led by Ridham Desai and Girish Acchipalia wrote in the report .

“These drivers will do it [India] the third largest economy and the third largest stock market in the world before the end of the decade.”

India recorded 6.3% year-on-year growth Slightly higher than a Reuters poll forecast of 6.2% for the July-September quarter. Previously, India posted 13.5% yoy growth from April to June, buoyed by robust domestic demand in the country’s services sector.

The country posted record year-on-year growth of 20.1% in the three months ended June 2021according to Refinitiv.

“These drivers will do it [India] the third largest economy and the third largest stock market in the world before the end of the decade.”

S&P guidance is dependent on continued Indian trade and financial liberalization, labor market reform and investment in India’s infrastructure and human capital.

“This is a reasonable expectation from India, which has a lot of catching up to do in terms of economic growth and per capita income,” Dhiraj Nim, an economist with Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Research, told Centre County Report.

Some of the above reforms are already underway, Nim said, highlighting the government’s commitment to foresee more capital spending in the country’s annual spending books.

Become a more export-oriented hub

According to S&P analysts, the Indian government has a clear focus on becoming a hub for foreign investors as well as a manufacturing powerhouse, and its main vehicle for doing so is the Production Linked Incentive Scheme to boost manufacturing and exports.

The so-called PLIS, which was introduced in 2020, offers incentives for both domestic and foreign investors in the form of tax refunds and royalties, among other incentives.

“It is very likely that the government will look to PLIS as a tool to make the Indian economy more export-oriented and more connected to global supply chains,” wrote S&P analysts.

Workers processing metal parts at a cookstove manufacturing facility of GHG Reduction Technologies Pvt in Nashik, Maharashtra, India on Sunday November 13, 2022.

Dhiraj Singh | Bloomberg | Getty Images

For the same reason, Morgan Stanley estimates that India’s manufacturing sector’s share of GDP “will increase from 15.6% of GDP currently to 21% by 2031” – meaning that manufacturing revenues will increase from the current $447 billion Bank.

“Multinationals are more optimistic than ever about investing in India… and the government is encouraging investment both by building infrastructure and making land available for factories,” Morgan Stanley said.

“India’s advantages [include] plentiful cheap labour, low manufacturing costs, openness to investment, pro-business policies and a young demographic with a strong propensity to consume,” said Sumedha Dasgupta, a senior analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

These factors make India an attractive choice for establishing manufacturing centers by the end of the decade, she said.

risk factors

One of the salient sticking points that could cast doubt on Morgan Stanley’s forecast is a prolonged global recession, as India is a highly trade-dependent economy and nearly 20% of its production is exported.

Other risk factors cited by the US investment bank include the supply of skilled labor, unfavorable geopolitical events and policy failures that may result from the election of a “weaker government”. //What do you mean?

A global slowdown could dampen prospects for India’s exporters, This was announced by the Indian Ministry of Finance last Thursday.

Although India’s overall GDP is already above pre-Covid levels, forward-looking growth will be “much weaker” compared to previous quarters, said Sonal Varma, chief economist at Nomura.

“Real GDP is now 8% above pre-Covid levels in terms of growth rate… but in terms of looking forward, there are headwinds from financial conditions on the global side,” Varma told Centre County Report’s Squawk Box on Thursday warned a cyclical slowdown is imminent.

Similarly, Nim also said human capital investment could be prioritized over education and health.

“This is particularly important in a post-pandemic economy where greater disruption to the informal sector has led to greater economic and wealth inequalities,” he said, adding that falling labor force participation rates, particularly among women, are a concern.

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Analysis-China central bank to offer limited, targeted growth support, no bazooka By Reuters

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©Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Paramilitary police officers stand guard outside the headquarters of the People’s Bank of China, the Central Bank (PBOC), in Beijing, China September 30, 2022. REUTERS/Tingshu Wang/File Photo

By Kevin Yao

BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s $17 trillion economy is heading for one of its worst results this year in nearly half a century, but the central bank has limited options in its arsenal of policy support as it seeks to avoid fuel the flight of capital.

Therefore, according to political sources and analysts, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is poised to step up targeted support for struggling sectors and ramp up the nearly $800 billion in loans it has already lent through its structural instruments.

The PBOC, which is trying to prop up an economy weakened by COVID-19 restrictions and a housing crisis, is expected to avoid aggressive stimulus that could stoke inflationary pressures and risk outflows from China, which would weaken the yuan, they said.

The PBOC’s room for maneuver has been limited by a global tightening wave led by the US Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hikes to tame inflation, although Fed Chair Jerome Powell has indicated their pace is slowing.

Since 2020, when the world’s second-largest economy was first rocked by the coronavirus, the PBOC has expanded its arsenal of structural policy tools, including reending and rediscounting facilities and other low-cost borrowing.

It has offered cheap loans to support small businesses, transport and logistics — sectors hardest hit by COVID — and sectors that align with Beijing’s long-term development goals, such as tech innovation, elderly care and carbon reduction.

“The central bank is likely to expand the scope of structural policy tools and increase the use of such tools,” said a person involved in policy discussions, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

“We will not resort to flood-like stimuli but will make policies more targeted and efficient to ensure adequate and sufficient liquidity.”

The PBOC did not respond to Reuters’ request for comment.

Outstanding loans issued through structural instruments totaled nearly 5.6 trillion yuan ($781.64 billion) at the end of September, central bank data showed.

The PBOC pledged 200 billion yuan in special loans to bail out the real estate sector last month and 154.3 billion yuan in loans to political banks in October through its pledged Supplemental Credit Facility (PSL) to finance infrastructure projects.

The central bank announced last week that it would cut banks’ reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for the second time this year, freeing up about 500 billion yuan in long-term liquidity, narrowing the scope for using the traditional tool. The average reserve ratio was reduced to 7.8% from 14.9% in 2018.

“What I expect is that the PBOC will engage in some form of unconventional monetary policy to increase the efficiency of this RRR cut,” said Iris Pang, chief economist for Greater China at ING, in a note.

To direct more lending to specific sectors, the central bank could increase its small business loan back rate, boost lending for unfinished housing projects and guide commercial banks to accelerate lending growth, Pang said.

POLITICAL RESTRICTIONS

All eyes are on the closed Central Economic Work Conference in December, when Chinese leaders are expected to set the policy course for the economy in 2023.

Chinese government advisers have told Reuters that they would recommend economic growth targets of between 4.5% and 5.5% for 2023. A central bank adviser said last month that China should set a growth target of no less than 5% for next year.

Leaders are expected to endorse a target at the December meeting, although it will not be publicly announced until China’s annual parliamentary session, which usually takes place in March.

Beijing is likely to double its infrastructure boost in 2023 and issue more debt to fund large projects while supporting the PBOC with modest easing, political sources said.

“We face some policy constraints (from the Fed’s moves), there’s no doubt about that,” Yu Yongding, an influential government economist who previously advised the central bank, told Reuters.

“But there is scope for monetary easing as long as inflation does not pick up. The biggest danger for China’s economy is that the growth rate is too slow.”

China is on track to miss the official growth target of “around” 5.5% this year, with economists forecasting growth of around 3%. Excluding the 2.2% expansion in 2020, it would be the weakest growth since 1976, the final year of the decades-long Cultural Revolution that wrecked the economy.

Analysts do not see inflationary pressures imminent, but the PBOC has warned that inflation could pick up once consumption recovers. Consumer inflation fell to 2.1% in October.

On November 21, the central bank leCentre County Report interest rates unchanged for the third straight month. The interest rate for one-year loans (LPR) was kept at 3.65%.

The yuan has fallen about 10% against the US dollar this year despite China’s capital controls.

($1 = 7.1644 yuan)

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tata play ipo: Tata Play becomes first firm to file confidential papers with Sebi for IPO

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New Delhi: Tata gameformerly known as Tata heavenis the first Indian company to file a confidential offering document for its initial public offering (IPO) with the Markets Authority Sebi.

That Tata group The company filed documents with Sebi, BSE and the National Stock Exchange (NSE) on November 29. The company announced this in a leading daily newspaper.

Market regulator Sebi recently introduced confidential filing or pre-notification of the draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) by companies seeking to go public.

A confidential filing, as the name suggests, allows a company to privately file an IPO registration statement with the regulator for review, delaying the public filing until much closer to the actual IPO date.

This mechanism will help companies keep their DRHPs private until they solidify their IPO plan. The offering documents are available for inspection by regulators and stock exchanges, but are not open to the public.

The company must then file an updated DRHP, which will be a public document once Sebi releases its observations and the company decides to launch its IPO.

The purpose is to give companies flexibility in the flow of information and to keep sensitive data from competitors.

Tata Group’s direct-to-home (DTH) platform aims to raise Rs 2,000-2,500 crore, mainly to allow partners like The Walt Disney Company to make a partial or full exit. Walt Disney inherited its stake in the company as part of its global buyout of Rupert Murdoch’s 21st Century Fox business, and Temasek, ET, reported in November.

Tata Play has already mandated five investment banks –

Capital, Bank of America, Citi, Morgan Stanley and IIFL — as lead arrangers and bookrunners on the proposed offering, according to the report.

As of 2004, Tata Sky was an 80:20 joint venture between Tata Sons and Network Digital Distribution Services FZ-LLC (NDDS), a company owned by Rupert Murdoch’s 21 Century Fox. Walt Disney Co acquired Fox in 2019 and owns an additional 9.8% stake in Tata Sky through TS Investments Ltd, where Fox owned a 49% stake and Tata the remainder.

Temasek of Singapore acquired a 10% interest in Tata Sky through Baytree Investments (Mauritius) Pte Ltd in FY2008 and in FY2013 Tata Opportunities Fund and Tata Capital Ltd acquired an interest in the company. Temasek is also a limited partner of the Tata Opportunities fund.

Tata Sons has a 41.49% stake in the company.

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